Volleyball Shot Charts from the Opening Weekend of Men's Volleyball

With the start of the men's college volleyball season, I am able to watch matches streaming on the internet. Televised matches are getting more common every year, almost to the point of being able to see all of a particular team's matches. Some of the broadcasts are from the traditional sideline view, but others are from a static camera at one end of the court. I prefer this end view. It gives a whole lot better idea of what is going on than the side view. Scouting videos are end view. You do miss out a little on set placement with regards to how close the ball is to the net, but there is a world of space that is missed with side view. This is especially apparent with middles. Middles in men's volleyball will hit quicks in system within the whole middle third of the net, sometimes more. Pin hitters will occasionally hit several feet inside the antennae, sometimes by design. The last couple nights I was able to watch a full five set match and part of another, both end view.

These end view videos are a great for doing the kinds of hit charts that I've mentioned here and here. As previously mentioned, I've been wanting to collect this exact kind of data, so I decided to do hit charts. Since I'm just using pen and paper, I won't be able to post those heat maps images that are so pretty. What I did was make a spreadsheet volleyball court with cell borders. I used a 2 for a hit from zone 2 (or zone 1 when the opposite is back row), a 3 from a middle attack (zone 3), a 4 for the front row outside (zone 4), and a 6 for a back row outside hitting a pipe or bic (zone 6). For a hit that the block touches, I circled the number; for a ball that the hitter tips, I crossed it out. It gives a decent approximation of a heat map. Looking at each of the 4s I can get an idea of the heat map for the outsides, 2s for opposites, etc.

Some of the questions I would like to answer with this kind of data: What are the optimal back row defense positions? Does it make sense to move a defender back, possibly to or over the end line, to dig hits that have been touched by the block (I have seen middle back players standing a couple feet past the end line at times)? Should back row defenders move out from behind the blockers (I have seen this idea practiced a lot)?

A couple things are immediately apparent to me. First tips tend to fall within about 3 feet either side of the attack line (greater than 75%). Tips only accounted for about 0.5% of attempts. Tips seemed to happen more often after the hitter hadn't been able to get past the block on two or three preceding attempts in the same rally.

Second, this match had some very good blocking. There were blocks (blocker scores a point) on 10% of attempts. There were block touches that were covered by the hitting team on about another 10% of attempts. Another 6 or 7% of attempts were touched by the block and were playable by the defense. About 60% of balls touched by the block and playable still landed or were dug within the court boundaries. Of the hits touched by the block that went out of bounds, only 3 of the 15 went past the end line. There were 267 attempts recorded for the match, so moving a defender back to play touched hits will only provide benefit on about 1% of attempts. Moving back row defenders out from behind blockers may make sense in this case, but it could still be the hitters' normal tendencies in play here. There is a hole in shot distribution of pin hitters that shows about where the blockers were, but there were more shots touched by the block outside of that hole. Pin hitters in this match hit angle probably around 70% of the time.

Third, the back row defense positions as I learned in the Gold Medal Squared system look pretty solid. Most, about 80%, of the shots would be playable from base defense positions plus a realistic movement distance. Perimeter defense schemes will more likely have defenders having to stretch that movement distance much more often. Perimeter defense would be in position to make plays on only about 60% of shots. One match doesn't give a lot of data points, but it is a start.

Things I might do differently moving forward: I might try to subdivide the court a little more to improve shot placement. Different colored ink might make it easier to visualize the heat map for the different hit originations. I might try just doing a short line like the number 1 at an angle indicating origination. That would be quicker than switching ink colors on long rallies. A smaller court diagram might be good. The diagram I made was 7.5 inches wide. That only gave a half inch margin on both sides.